0.006% chance of Death by COVID. 8% chance of Severe/Moderate Fever from Oxford Vaccine

William J. Banks | Paris | 2 December 2020

(The above statement is true for 18-55 year olds.)

A site not seen in recent times.

Oxford University’s vaccine has recently been given much media attention after they reported that “Phase 3 interim analysis…..indicates that the vaccine is 70.4% effective”

Professor Andrew Pollard, the Director of the Oxford Vaccine Group went on to say “we’ve found that one of our dosing regimens may be around 90% effective”.

Interestingly most mainstream media publications reported the 90% number instead of the 70.4% number which was the actual result of the trials so far.

Oxford’s ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine phase 2 trial results were recently published in The Lancet. In it we can find some very interesting statistics relating to severe adverse reactions to the vaccine, which most media outlets prefer not to publish. For example:

26% of 18-55 year olds, after the Primary Standard Dose, experienced an adverse reaction of moderate to severe ‘feverishness’ [ ref: p16 – Supplementary appendix]

8% of 18-55 year olds, after the Primary Standard Dose, experienced an adverse reaction of a fever >=38·5°C or >=39°C [ ref: p16 – Supplementary appendix]

Oxford assures us however that “ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is made from a …. virus (adenovirus) that causes infections in chimpanzees, that has been genetically changed so that it is impossible for it to grow in humans.”

So impossible – that it cause severe fevers of over 39°C.

The Lancet trial report states (in Appendix E) that a fever over 40°C is “Potentially Life threatening

Table S14 in the trial results appendix lists 13 Severe Adverse Events in participants. Conveniently the ‘site investigator’ decided that NONE of them were related to the vaccine. This is curious considering that the report mentions that all of the participants were considered to be “healthy adults” before the trial.

We shall review which of these severe events could possibly have been related and which could not. Those that seem obviously not related are:

  • Vertebral fracture
  • Ovarian cyst
  • Prostate Cancer
  • Sigmoid Volvulus – twist of the intestine around the axis of its blood supply
  • Hernia

The remaining 7 severe events are not so easy to dismiss considering that ALL participants were considered to be healthy at the start of the trial. The trial only lasted one month and so the conclusion that all of these severe conditions apparently just manifested by coincidence is highly dubious in our oppinion:

  • Pneumonia – inflammation of the lungs, usually caused by an infection
  • Unstable Angina – a condition in which your heart doesn’t get enough blood flow and oxygen
  • Limb Ischaemia – severe obstruction of the arteries which markedly reduces blood flow to the extremities
  • Acute Diverticulitis – inflammation due to micro-perforation of the colon wall
  • Polymyalgia Rheumatica – a condition that causes pain, stiffness and inflammation in the muscles around the shoulders, neck and hips
  • Lower Limb Oedema – build-up of fluid
  • Appendicitis – caused by infection in the gastrointestinaltract

The Chief Investigator of the trial was Prof Andrew Pollard – who also happens to be the Director of the Oxford Vaccine Group. I am not sure who decided it would be a good idea for a medical research team to investigate itself? Where are the checks and balances?

It must be remembered however that the phase 2 trial had a ridiculously small number of participants, only 549. Coming to any kind of conclusion as to how the vaccine will affect an entire population is impossible and anyone who professes to come to a conclusion is a fool who does not understand statistics.

Phase 3 of the trial has at least 24,000 participants and Oxford has recently announced that “Phase 3 interim analysis indicates … There were no …. severe cases in anyone who received the vaccine“. This astounding statement that is completely contradictory to the phase 2 results is very hard to believe. Again this statement comes from the same group who will be selling the vaccine. How is this self analysis acceptable by the media and the public? How the severe fevers have gone from 8% to 0% is certainly a miracle of science. It will be very interesting to see how true that statement is when the Lancet paper is published. We will report on the actual results here when they are published.

When one is armed with the knowledge that the human immune system is extremely effective at preventing death from Covid, one wonders why anyone would choose to inject Oxford’s genetically modified chimpanzee virus?

Even some of the most biased ‘fact checking’ outfits – FullFact.org – states that it estimates the death rate (number of people who die after being infected) of Covid is as low as 1.3%.

So if 98.7% of people infected do not die – i.e. they get a case of the sniffles – then why would a vaccine that is only 70.4% effective be of interest to the public? Why even would a vaccine that is 90% effective be of interest? Especially when is can cause severe fever as a side effect.

Other sources claim a slightly higher death rate so, to play devils advocate we can look directly to Johns Hopkins University’s death rate numbers. (Yes, the same John Hopkins who notoriously hosted the ‘Event 201’ simulated coronavirus pandemic – 1 month before the real pandemic) :

If we discount Mexico’s obviously erroneous rate of 9.5% and Iran’s who’s is also highly questionable – the highest rate they show is 3.6% – from the UK, which is also questionable in our opinion. However if we assume this to be correct – that still gives a 96.4% survival rate in the UK – way higher than the effectiveness rate of the Oxford vaccine (or Pfizer’s vaccine).

If we take an average of all country’s death rates we get:

(without Mexico and Iran) 42.6 / 18 = 2.36 %

(all countries) 57.1 / 20 = 2.85 %

So from all countries we get an average survival rate of 97.15 % to 97.64 %

Just to make this point clear – The OFFICIAL numbers are telling us that 97% of people who catch the Covid flu (SARS-CoV-2) will NOT DIE.

The two vaccines that governments and media companies are currently attempting to make as close to mandatory as possible – are somewhere between 70.4% to 95% effective (at the very best) [Oxford] and [Pfizer].

Another major statistic that almost no media outlet has reported – is:

What is the likelihood of even catching Covid at all?

If we calculate this today (2nd of December 2020) from the UK’s data we get:

1.46M cases / 66.65 M (UK population) x 100 = 2.195%

So an average person has only a 2.2% chance of even catching a noticeable case of the Covid flu.

So to calculate the ACTUAL chance of dying of the Covid – we must multiple 2.2% (the chance of contracting it) x 3.6% (the chance of dying after you’ve caught it). This gives us 0.079 %.

This also checks out with the result of calculating the percentage of deaths per the entire population:

59,051 deaths / 66.65 M (UK population) x 100 = 0.088 %

To put this another way:

If you DON’T take the Covid shot you have a 2.2% chance of catching Covid and a probability of dying from Covid of approximately 0.08% to 0.09%

If you DO take the Covid vaccine you have a 5% chance of still contracting Covid.
And you STILL have the same probability of dying.

This should cause any rational thinker pause for thought.

But of course the government will still give everyone a free choice:

Either take the chimp virus shot, the RNA modification shot, or take the terrifying risk getting a mild case of the sniffles and just don’t work or travel or go out and have fun ever again (freedom pass denied).


We just found the UK’s Covid deaths per age group data, which was last updated in October, but we can still use it to calculate an approximate age group distribution :

From this data it can be seen that of the 30,743 deaths only 2,599 were people under the age of 60. That is 8.45 %. Therefore:

If you are over the age of 60 your real probability of dying from Covid flu is 0.07%

If you are under the age of 60, your real probability of dying from Covid flu is 0.006%

Apparently this is what your government shut the the economy off for.

Published by William J. Banks

I have a University Certificate in Natural Sciences, (Biology Chemistry & Physics) and a University Diploma in Computer Science.

2 thoughts on “0.006% chance of Death by COVID. 8% chance of Severe/Moderate Fever from Oxford Vaccine

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